Live demo
Back-book DCF — scenario explorer
A worked example of a deferred services back-book: contracts signed today, delivered and billed over 15 years. Move any assumption and the full model recalculates live. Every figure is invented.
Estimated NPV — 15 years + terminal
$107.8M
vs Base +$0 (+0.0%) · Operating PVs $71.1M · Terminal PV $36.7M
Scenario range
Quick presets
Management case
Headline lever
The assumption a room argues about first. Small moves here swing the answer more than any operational lever below, which is exactly why it's the first slider on the page.
Operational levers
Delivery ramp profile
Share of theoretical revenue captured as delivery capacity matures. Base reaches 100% by year 7; Slow tops out under 95%.
EBITDA trajectory · 15 years
Where the operating assumptions show up
Present value composition
Where the $107.8M comes from
Terminal: 34% of NPV
Year by year
The model in detail
| Year | Income | Margin | GP | Opex | EBITDA | DF | PV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Y1 | $578K | 35% | $202K | $450K | -$248K | 0.833 | -$207K |
| Y2 | $2.3M | 53% | $1.2M | $950K | $250K | 0.694 | $174K |
| Y3 | $4.9M | 65% | $3.2M | $1.3M | $1.9M | 0.579 | $1.1M |
| Y4 | $8.9M | 73% | $6.4M | $1.6M | $4.8M | 0.482 | $2.3M |
| Y5 | $14.4M | 75% | $10.8M | $1.9M | $8.9M | 0.402 | $3.6M |
| Y6 | $20.5M | 75% | $15.4M | $2.2M | $13.2M | 0.335 | $4.4M |
| Y7 | $34.1M | 75% | $25.6M | $2.4M | $23.2M | 0.279 | $6.5M |
| Y8 | $43.3M | 75% | $32.5M | $2.5M | $30.0M | 0.233 | $7.0M |
| Y9 | $52.9M | 75% | $39.7M | $2.6M | $37.0M | 0.194 | $7.2M |
| Y10 | $62.9M | 75% | $47.2M | $2.8M | $44.4M | 0.162 | $7.2M |
| Y11 | $73.5M | 75% | $55.1M | $3.0M | $52.2M | 0.135 | $7.0M |
| Y12 | $84.5M | 75% | $63.4M | $3.1M | $60.3M | 0.112 | $6.8M |
| Y13 | $96.0M | 75% | $72.0M | $3.3M | $68.8M | 0.093 | $6.4M |
| Y14 | $108.1M | 75% | $81.1M | $3.4M | $77.7M | 0.078 | $6.0M |
| Y15 | $120.7M | 75% | $90.5M | $3.5M | $87.0M | 0.065 | $5.6M |
| Sum of operating PVs | $71.1M | ||||||
| Terminal value (Gordon) $565.2M → PV | $36.7M | ||||||
| NPV | $107.8M | ||||||
Method
Income = Volume × (1−Attrition) × Case value × Take rate × Delivery ramp · Conversion scalar. EBITDA = Income × Margin − Opex. PV = EBITDA × (1+r)−t. Terminal value uses Gordon Growth on year-15 EBITDA. Lever trajectories transition from current state to terminal over four years.
Caveat
Every figure is invented. This is a mechanism demo: the point is that each assumption is falsifiable on the spot, live in the room, rather than asserted from a spreadsheet nobody can interrogate.